Integrated Modeling System
SAVI is composed of five inter-linked econometric/mathematic models, predicting traffic, capacities, retirements, deliveries, and values annually for the next twenty years.
| Traffic Models | The Traffic Models forecast passenger traffic for six major geographic regions: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa. It is a system of econometric equations taking consideration of input such as GDP growth, population, fuel price, yield, and other related variables. |
| Capacity Models | The Capacity Models are used to convert the traffic forecasts by region are into a measure of Market Demand using Load Factor analysis combined with assumptions about future aircraft utilization and productivity. |
| Retirement Models | The Retirement Models forecast number of aircraft to be retired based on the current fleet size, fleet age and AVITAS’s assumption of aircraft’s economic life. As airlines usually retire more when traffic is stagnant, the pattern of retirement is also constructed with a linkage to the traffic pattern. |
| Delivery Models | The Delivery Models predict new aircraft deliveries with consideration to historical patterns for deliveries and order backlogs as well as the life cycle of various aircraft models. |
| Value Models | AVITAS describes the impact on passenger jet values with a value index curve. This curve does not show actual values but the relative relationship between projected market demand and supply. The Value Models convert the market demand into the “desired fleet” considering aircraft productivities under normal conditions. The value index curves are derived based on the relationship between the “desired fleet” and projected fleet size calibrated with data from thousands of actual transactions of historical aircraft sales. |
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Got a question? Call 703-476-2300 or email info@avitas.com
